Millbrae's Condo Rung Is Almost Empty, and That Matters More Than August's Price Dip

In August 2026, a buyer looking for a condo in Millbrae had three listings to choose from and a single closed sale to compare them against. That one sale closed at $1,073,000, at 102% of list price, after an average of zero days on market. As a result, Millbrae's condo median for the month rose 60.1% from August 2025. A single transaction moved the number that far.

Most coverage of Millbrae this fall will lead with the other headline: the single-family median falling to $1,750,000. The more useful fact for anyone trying to buy a first home here sits underneath both numbers. Millbrae has very little owned housing below the single-family tier. So few units trade that a median can't guide an offer. And it is still unconfirmed whether any of the large construction projects now rising along El Camino Real will add for-sale units.

A median built from one sale is just that sale's price

The San Mateo County Association of Realtors publishes city-level figures every month, compiled from MLSListings data. The August 2026 reports, released September 16, are the newest available. Here is Millbrae's common-interest development category, which SAMCAR labels as condominiums and publishes without a separate townhome series, across 2026 so far:

Across the seven months with a published row, Millbrae recorded 25 condo sales. Over the same eight months, single-family homes recorded 75. The condo median swung between $685,000 and $1,073,000, and the month-to-month moves track which buildings and floor plans happened to close, not any change in demand. Median price per square foot ran from $592 to $998 over the same stretch.

This is the friction that hits buyers during a transaction. When an agent pulls comparable sales for a Millbrae condo offer, the 90-day window may hold only a handful of closings, possibly from different complexes with different HOA structures and unit sizes. Buyers who show up with a citywide median in mind are anchoring to a number one or two sales produced. Pricing comes down to the specific building, the specific floor plan and the last time that kind of unit traded, and in Millbrae that may have been a while ago.

The single-family dip rests on nine sales

The same small-sample problem affects the headline single-family number, just to a lesser degree. In August 2026, nine Millbrae single-family homes sold at a median of $1,750,000. In August 2025, sixteen sold at a median of $2,022,500. Those nine homes closed in an average of 8 days and at 114% of list price, tied with March for the second-highest monthly figure Millbrae posted all year, behind May's 116%.

Every other month of 2026 put the single-family median between $1,892,500 and $2,537,500. The quarterly summaries are steadier. Q1 2026 came in at $2,210,000 on 23 sales and Q2 at $2,300,500 on 32 sales, with homes in both quarters closing at 110% of list. Homes don't sell 14% over asking in a market that is softening. August reflects a small batch of sales, and buyers were still competing hard for them.

So the single-family market looks much as it did in spring. The condo market is the one where the numbers can't be trusted on their own, and for many first-time buyers that is the only tier within reach.

What a square foot costs on each rung

Measured per square foot, Millbrae buyers pay much more for land than for interior space. In Q2 2026, the median Millbrae condo sold for $732 per square foot and the median single-family home for $1,254. A square foot in a Millbrae condo cost about 58 cents for every dollar a square foot cost in a house. Q1 showed almost the same ratio, $694 against $1,171.

Comparing Millbrae's condo tier with its neighbors' shows something the medians hide.

• Millbrae, Q2 2026: 11 sales, $952,000 median, $732 per square foot
• Burlingame, Q2 2026: 12 sales, $1,050,000 median, $806 per square foot
• San Bruno, Q2 2026: 16 sales, $459,500 median, $706 per square foot

San Bruno's median condo price was less than half of Millbrae's, yet its price per square foot was only $26 lower. Most of that gap comes from the size and type of units that changed hands, not from Millbrae space carrying a much higher rate. For a buyer comparing the two cities, the price per square foot in the specific building under consideration says more than either city's median.

SAMCAR also doesn't publish a separate townhome series. Its attached-home category is labeled as condominiums, so nothing in the public data shows how many attached homes with their own entry, and sometimes a small yard, sold in Millbrae this year.

Roughly 760 homes under construction, with ownership still an open question

Millbrae is building a lot of housing. The question for buyers is how much of it they will be able to buy. A 2026 San Mateo Daily Journal update lists three active residential projects.

1. One Meadow Glen, 959 El Camino Real. On the former Office Depot site, 278 units, 26 of them affordable, plus about 17,000 square feet of ground-floor retail and a public plaza on Broadway. The developer is High Street Residential, Trammell Crow Company's residential subsidiary, working with SBI Builders. The frame is complete, and construction is expected to finish in spring 2027.
2. 1100 El Camino Real. Demolition has started on the old El Rancho Inn site, which will become a five-story, 384-unit apartment complex.
3. 1301 Broadway. A six-story building with 97 affordable units, assembled from prefabricated modules, with 63 parking spaces.

Together that's 759 units. Millbrae recorded 25 condo sales in the first eight months of 2026, so the pipeline is about 30 times that figure.

All three projects used Senate Bill 330, the state law that speeds approvals. Mayor Stephen Rainaldi said Millbrae "led the way in county per capita." City Manager Tom Williams said the law had kept the city from making changes that might have benefited residents, citing the parking count and six-story height at 1301 Broadway.

One Meadow Glen is the project buyers should watch. In July 2024, a City Council agenda included approval of its final map for "Residential and Commercial Condominium Purposes." A condominium map makes it legally possible to sell units individually. It doesn't commit the developer to doing so, and none of the public material reviewed for this post says whether the units will be rented or sold. The city's groundbreaking announcement calls the project multifamily housing. If One Meadow Glen does sell its units, it would add more ownership supply in one building than Millbrae's condo market has absorbed in years. If it rents them, the condo tier stays as thin as the table above.

Serra Station at 150 Serra Avenue, entitled for 488 units, had not yet reached building-permit plan review because of issues tied to the adjacent high-speed rail project. That status report also showed Millbrae with permits for 408 units toward its 2023 to 2031 state allocation of 2,199.

SB 79 applies near the station, not to whole neighborhoods

SB 79 took effect July 1, 2026. In San Mateo County it generally covers parcels zoned residential, mixed-use or commercial within a half-mile of qualifying rail stops, which puts much of the area around Millbrae Station in play. The details narrow it considerably. Millbrae's eligibility checklist sets standards for height, density and floor area that change with distance from the stop, with Tier 1 thresholds at 200 feet and a quarter mile, and qualifying projects need at least five units.

For a buyer, this means SB 79 could eventually produce more multi-unit buildings near the station, and whether those units are sold or rented will be up to each developer. It does not rezone the single-family blocks further from the station, and eligibility has to be checked parcel by parcel against the MTC map instead of being assumed.

Questions buyers ask about Millbrae's condo market

Is August 2026 a good moment to negotiate on a Millbrae house? The data doesn't point that way. Homes that month sold at 114% of list in an average of 8 days, and Q1 and Q2 both averaged 110% of list. The lower median mostly reflects which nine homes happened to sell.

How should a condo offer be priced when there's only one recent sale? Price it from the building and floor plan, not the citywide median. Compare price per square foot from the most recent sales in the same complex, and widen the time window if needed, since Millbrae's monthly condo medians in 2026 have ranged from $685,000 to $1,073,000.

Will One Meadow Glen add condos for sale in 2027? That hasn't been confirmed. The project has a condominium final map and is expected to finish in spring 2027, but public materials haven't said whether units will be sold. Watch for an announcement from the developer or the City of Millbrae.

With three condos listed and one closed sale in August, pricing a Millbrae condo offer depends on knowing each building's recent sales history. If you're weighing a Millbrae condo against a house, or deciding whether to wait for One Meadow Glen, Luis Vasquez can pull building-level comps with you, in English or Spanish. Get your free Buying & Selling Guide and schedule a market consultation.

This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.